芮红睿,武加宝,胡立伟

• 1:昆明市西山区交通运输局
• 2:昆明理工大学
• 3:交通工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

研究高速公路隧道入口段行车风险的影响因素，确定其行车风险等级，从而可提高隧道入口段行车的安全性与舒适性。利用文献萃取法，从驾驶员因素、道路条件、交通条件和环境条件中选取18个行车风险因素，建立了高速公路隧道入口过渡段行车风险因素集。基于决策实验室-解释结构模型建立了高速公路隧道入口段行车风险因素识别模型，筛选出高速公路隧道入口过渡段行车风险评价指标，并结合风险评价指标建立了山区高速公路隧道入口过渡段行车风险可拓云评价模型。利用熵值法确定评价指标权重，根据最大关联度原则明确了隧道入口段的行车风险等级，通过与可拓法的对比分析进而验证模型的准确性。通过实例应用分析发现，利用可拓云模型和可拓法计算出隧道X和隧道Y的行车风险等级均为Ⅱ级，而隧道X的特征期望值大于隧道Y的特征期望值，表明隧道X的安全水平高于隧道Y。两个模型计算出的可信度均小于0.01，可信度都较高，结果表明了可拓云模型的有效性和科学性，为探究高速公路隧道入口段行车风险提供了一个新的方向。研究结果不仅有助于高速公路隧道入口段行车安全的提升，同时对研究交通事故的影响因素与形成机理具有借鉴意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 交通工程;行车风险;可拓云模型;隧道入口段;高速公路

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(61863019,42277476)

作者(Author): 芮红睿,武加宝,胡立伟

DOI: 10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.09.006

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