吴琼,张永锋

• 1:上海海事大学交通运输学院
• 2:上海国际航运研究中心

摘要(Abstract)：

为研究新冠肺炎疫情爆发对邮轮经济的影响机制,运用系统动力学理论,分析新冠肺炎疫情与邮轮产业收入的因果关系,构建因果关系图和流图,建立系统仿真方程。以A、B两国之间的邮轮市场为例,运用Vensim软件模拟疫情和邮轮产业收入的发展趋势,并进行方案模拟。仿真结果表明:出发地感染个体数量约为86 324人,邮轮感染个体数量约为707人;停航措施能有效减少邮轮上感染人数,延后10天停航和延后20天停航的邮轮感染个体数量分别是现实停航时间邮轮感染个体数量的1.67倍和2.35倍,及时停航有利于控制疫情的传播,但无休止的停航有损邮轮产业收入;采取邮轮隔离措施,加强对邮轮旅客的管理以及做好邮轮在目的地港口的停靠工作,也能有效减少邮轮感染人数和目的地感染人数;采取邮轮补贴措施有利于复航后邮轮旅客数的增加,增加邮轮防控投入减少了复航后邮轮感染人数和目的地感染人数大幅增加的可能性,并且有利于邮轮产业收入的恢复。因此疫情后应当考虑及时让邮轮复航以减轻疫情对邮轮产业的打击。

关键词(KeyWords)： 新冠肺炎;邮轮经济;系统动力学

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社科基金一般项目（20BJY177）

作者(Author): 吴琼,张永锋

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