于二泽,周继彪

• 1:北京北大千方科技有限公司
• 2:同济大学
• 3:交通运输工程学院
• 4:宁波工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

准确掌握城市公共自行车租/还不均衡程度的时空规律，是引导用户参与自平衡调度、降低调度成本的重要前提。本文以宁波市中心城区公共自行车及其300 m缓冲区建成环境为研究对象，将站点的单车缺口值作为不均衡程度量化指标，基于大规模IC卡刷卡记录数据，利用Kmeans聚类与空间统计等手段，分析了全局站点单车缺口的时空变化规律及骑行OD特征，并构建考虑空间自相关的地理加权回归模型，对建成环境与单车缺口的内在联系进行实证研究。研究表明：(1)研究区域内公共自行车站点的工作日活跃特征分为2类：均衡型、就业导向型，休息日内站点特征分为3类：居住导向型、均衡型、休闲导向型；(2)工作日和休息日的站点单车缺口的全局Moran’s I分别为0.116和0.102，表现出显著的空间正相关性；(3)人口密度、主干路里程、居住社区型POI变量在早/晚高峰时段分别对单车缺口具有正向/负向影响，并且南北部地区影响效用差异明显；地铁站点的影响效用与以上变量相反，空间作用特征是随地铁2号线的走向呈梯度变化。

关键词(KeyWords)： 交通工程;时空特征;地理加权回归模型;公共自行车;租还车缺口

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目（52002282）;; 浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题项目（21NDJC163YB）

作者(Author): 于二泽,周继彪

DOI: 10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.04.006

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