| 278 | 0 | 9 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
【背景】电气化公路作为一种新兴的低碳/零碳重卡运输系统，对实现交通领域“双碳”目标至关重要，但尚未有学者充分探讨其相对于其他重卡运输模式的经济性问题。【目标】构建不同模式重卡运输系统成本模型，从经济性角度推动重卡运输模式转型，促进公路交通运输的可持续发展。【方法】采用全生命周期成本法，综合考虑基础设施建设、车辆、电池更换、能耗及维护等成本，基于关键因素敏感性计算，分析不同模式重卡运输系统成本差异，揭示不同运营年限下各运输模式成本变化规律。【结果】随着运营年限的增长，电气化公路凭借持续降低的能耗成本和逐步摊薄的前期投入优势日益凸显，尤其在采用分段架设接触网方案时更能实现建设成本的有效控制。电价和电池单价对分段架设接触网方案成本影响较大，而油价波动对传统燃油方案的影响相比其他因素影响最为显著。【结论】随着化石能源成本的逐渐上升和电池成本的逐渐降低，采用分段架设接触网方案的电气化公路系统是降低碳排放和运输成本的最佳选择。
Abstract：[Background] Electrified roads, as a novel low-carbon/zero-carbon heavy-duty truck transportation system, are essential for achieving“dual-carbon”targets in the transportation sector.However, the economic feasibility of this system relative to other heavy-duty truck transportation modes has not been sufficiently discussed. [Objective] Therefore, a cost model for different modes of heavy-truck transportation systems is constructed to promote the transformation of heavy-truck transportation modes from an economic perspective and promote the sustainable development of road transport. [Methods] The lifecycle cost method is used to integrate the costs of infrastructure construction, vehicles, battery replacement, energy consumption, and maintenance. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the key factors, the cost differences between different heavy-duty truck transportation system modes are examined. The cost variation trends for each transportation mode over different operational lifespans are disclosed. [Results] As the number of operational years increases,electrified roads demonstrate substantial advantages owing to their lower energy consumption costs and the gradual amortization of initial construction expenses. In particular, the segmented contactnetwork installation scheme incurs a low cost. Electricity tariffs and battery prices significantly affect the cost of the segmented contact-network installation plan. However, oil-price fluctuations have the most pronounced effect on conventional fuel-based schemes compared with other factors. [Conclusions] As the cost of fossil fuels increases gradually and the cost of batteries decreases, an electrified road system with a segmented catenary erection scheme is show to be optimal for reducing carbon emissions and transportation costs.
[1] International Energy Agency. CO2Emissions in 2022[EB/OL].(2023-03-12)[2025-02-25]. https://www. iea. org/reports/CO2-emissions-in-2022.
[2]岑君,陶秋钢,梅振宇,等.基于系统动力学和多智能体模型的高速公路减碳策略研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报, 2025. 23(1):189-211.CEN Jun,TAO Qiugang, MEI Zhenyu, et al. Research on expressway carbon reduction strategies based on the system dynamicsand multi-agent integrated model[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2025.23(1):189-211.
[3]清华大学互联网产业研究院. 2022城市零碳交通白皮书[R].安徽:清华大学互联网产业研究院, 2022.
[4]清华大学社会科学院经济学研究所.中国公路货运大数据碳排放报告[R].北京:清华大学社会科学院经济学研究所, 2024.
[5]国家统计局.年度数据[EB/OL].(2012-05-15)[2025-02-25]. https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01
[6]李浩,陈浩,陆续,等.考虑排放约束的电动汽车混行交通路网均衡模型[J].交通运输工程与信息学报, 2021,19(4):24-35, 117.LI Hao, CHEN Hao, LU Xu, et al. Mixed traffic network equilibrium with battery electric vehicles considering emission constraints[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2021, 19(4):24-35, 117.
[7]张明琦,郑泽东,李永东.公路货运能耗及低碳化发展路径研究[J].机车电传动, 2022(3):10-16.ZHANG Mingqi, ZHENG Zedong, LI Yongdong. Research on road freight energy consumption and low-carbon development path[J]. Electric Drive for Locomotives,2022(3):10-16.
[8] NICOLAIDES D, CEBON D, MILES J. Prospects for electrification of road freight[J]. IEEE Systems Journal,2018, 12(2):1838-1849.
[9]中国新闻网.瑞典率先打造世界首条永久性充电公路[EB/OL].(2023-05-17)[2025-02-25]. https://www. chinanews.com.cn/gj/2023/05-17/10008548.shtml.
[10]何继江,侯宇,缪雨含.欧洲电气化公路建设对中国交通碳中和的启示[J].经济与管理, 2022, 36(3):67-73.HE Jijiang, HOU Yu, MIAO Yuhan. Implications of European electric highway policies for carbon-neutral in China’s transportation[J]. Economy and Management,2022, 36(3):67-73.
[11]湖南省人民政府.株洲建成国内首条电气化公路示范线[EB/OL].(2023-03-14)[2025-02-25]. https://www.hunan. gov. cn/hnszf/hnyw/szdt/202303/t20230314_29272725.htm.
[12]邵江东,徐煜,谭建勇.基于效能及可靠性的车辆资产全寿命周期成本评估模型及应用系统[J].交通运输工程与信息学报, 2013, 11(3):47-51.SHAO Jiangdong, XU Yu, TAN Jianyong. Application system and evaluation model of vehicle asset life cycle costing based on reliability and efficiency[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2013, 11(3):47-51.
[13]蔡团结,王旭斌,陈春梅.客车燃油消耗计算模型的构建及验证[J].公路交通科技, 2009, 26(9):150-153.CAI Tuanjie, WANG Xubin, CHEN Chunmei. Modeling and verification of fuel consumption calculating model for passenger vehicles[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2009, 26(9):150-153.
[14]张金辉,李克强,徐彪,等.基于最小二乘法的车辆瞬态燃油消耗估计[J].汽车工程, 2018, 40(10):1151-1157.ZHANG Jinhui, LI Keqiang, XU Biao, et al. Estimation of vehicle instantaneous fuel consumption based on least square method[J]. Automotive Engineering, 2018, 40(10):1151-1157.
[15]冯启飞,霍崇亚,邱勇,等.面向电气化公路的重卡模型研究[J].重型汽车, 2023(1):6-8.
[16]郑泽东,刘昊,李永东,等.电气化公路技术研究[J].中国公路学报, 2019, 32(5):132-141.ZHENG Zedong, LIU Hao, LI Yongdong, et al. Electrical highway application[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2019, 32(5):132-141.
[17]任玉珑,李海锋,孙睿,等.基于消费者视角的电动汽车全寿命周期成本模型及分析[J].技术经济, 2009, 28(11):54-58.REN Yulong, LI Haifeng, SUN Rui, et al. Analysis on model of life cycle cost of electric vehicle based on consumer perspective[J]. Technology Economics, 2009, 28(11):54-58.
[18]王振报.电动汽车策略对碳排放的影响评估:以美国马里兰州一体化模型应用为例[J].城市交通, 2021, 19(5):66-72, 16.WANG Zhenbao. Impact of electric vehicle strategies on carbon emissions:take the Maryland PRESTO model application as an example[J]. Urban Transport of China,2021, 19(5):66-72, 16.
[19]付志坚,王磊明,刘继永,等.“双碳”背景下电气化公路运输系统绿色低碳效益探析[J].交通节能与环保,2024, 20(4):1-5, 17.FU Zhijian, WANG Leiming, LIU Jiyong, et al. Analysis of green benefits of electrified highway freight transportation under the background of“dual carbon”[J]. Transport Energy Conservation&Environmental Protection,2024, 20(4):1-5, 17.
[20]黄少雄,蒋海峰,杨文银,等.电气化公路技术进展及在中国应用的可行性分析[J].公路交通科技, 2020, 37(8):118-126.HUANG Shaoxiong, JIANG Haifeng, YANG Wenyin,et al. Technical progress of electrified highway and feasibility analysis of its application in China[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2020, 37(8):118-126.
[21]李红标,郑泽东,李永东.货运交通电气化技术的电气化公路方案与氢能方案对比研究[J].控制与信息技术, 2024(1):40-45.LI Hongbiao, ZHENG Zedong, LI Yongdong. Comparative study of freight traffic electrification technologies:electrified highway and hydrogen fuel cell[J]. Control and Information Technology, 2024(1):40-45.
[22]金永花,李相俊.新能源汽车的经济性分析:以比亚迪PHEV和BEV为例[J].可再生能源, 2012, 30(6):118-123, 126.JIN Yonghua, LI Xiangjun. Economic analysis of new energy vehicles based on PHEV and BEV of BYD[J].Renewable Energy Resources, 2012, 30(6):118-123,126.
[23]唐葆君,刘江鹏.我国纯电动与混合动力公交车发展的经济性分析[J].中国能源, 2013, 35(8):37-41, 47.
[24]曾鸣,史慧.混合动力汽车全寿命周期成本计算模型及分析[J].现代电力, 2014, 31(1):40-44.ZENG Ming, SHI Hui. Model and analysis on total life cycle cost estimation of hybrid electric vehicles[J]. Modern Electric Power, 2014, 31(1):40-44.
[25]齐兴达,李显君,章博文.中国温室气体减排成本有效性分析:以纯电动汽车为例[J].技术经济, 2017, 36(4):72-78.QI Xingda, LI Xianjun, ZHANG Bowen. Cost effectiveness analysis on emission reduction of greenhouse gas in China:taking electric vehicle as example[J]. Technology Economics, 2017, 36(4):72-78.
[26]中华人民共和国中央人民政府.中华人民共和国道路安全法实施条例[EB/OL].(2023-05-15)[2025-02-25].https://www. gov. cn/gongbao/content/2004/content_62772.htm.
[27]中汽数据有限公司.中国商用车TCO研究及中美对比[R].华盛顿:能源基金会, 2024.
[28]汪帆,龙爱军,赵湘衡,等.一种电气化公路整车的动力系统匹配设计[J].专用汽车, 2024(1):14-17.
[29]信达证券.换电站系列专题(一)：换电站成本拆分及运营收益的敏感性分析[R].北京:信达证券, 2024.
[30]中华人民共和国国家发展与改革委员会. 2023年5月16日24时起国内成品油价格按机制下调[EB/OL].(2023-05-16)[2025-02-25]. https://www. ndrc. gov. cn/xwdt/xwfb/202305/t20230516_1355789.html.
[31]中华人民共和国国家发展与改革委员会.关于第三监管周期省级电网输配电价及有关事项的通知[EB/OL].(2023-05-15)[2025-02-25]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/202305/t20230515_1355747.html.
[32]玛莎·劳伦斯,理查德·布洛克,刘子铭.中国的高速铁路发展:聚焦国际发展[R].华盛顿:世界银行, 2019.
[33]陈红,徐淑玲.动力氢镍电池市场现状与前景[J].电池, 2024, 54(4):552-554.CHEN Hong, XU Shuling. Status quo and prospects of power nickel-metal hydride battery market[J]. Battery Bimonthly, 2024, 54(4):552-554.
[34]张玉曼,范羚羚,杨重阳.不同负极材料对LiFePO4高功率储能器件循环性能的影响[J].储能科学与技术,2024, 13(9):3245-3253.ZHANG Yuman, FAN Lingling, YANG Chongyang.Effects of different anode materials on the cyclic performance of high-power LiFePO4energy storage devices[J]. Energy Storage Science and Technology, 2024, 13(9):3245-3253.
[35]中华人民共和国交通运输部.交通运输部关于印发《交通运输标准提升行动方案（2024—2027年）》和《交通运输标准管理创新行动方案》的通知[EB/OL].(2025-01-03)[2025-02-25]. https://xxgk. mot. gov. cn/2020/jigou/kjs/202501/t20250103_4161981.html.
[36]中华人民共和国国家发展与改革委员会.关于大力实施可再生能源替代行动的指导意见[EB/OL].(2024-10-18)[2025-02-25]. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202410/content_6983959.htm.
基本信息:
DOI：10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.01.015
中图分类号:U492.3
引用信息:
[1]黄成彬,周子伟,徐焱等.不同模式重卡运输系统成本分析与关键因素敏感性研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2025,23(02):97-109.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.01.015.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目（12302048）