| 717 | 4 | 231 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
共享单车的迅速发展对现有公共交通产生了直接影响。虽然已有研究探讨了共享单车对城市公交和轨道交通的影响，但其对整体公共交通的影响仍不明确，尤其是这一影响的长期效应和作用机制有待深入探讨。本文采用多期双重差分（DID）方法，对比讨论了共享单车对城市公交客运量、轨道交通客运量和公共交通客运总量的影响。研究发现，城市引入共享单车后，尽管轨道交通客运量显著增加了0.088个标准差（约为8252万人次，增长了14.34%），但城市公交客运量显著减少了0.128个标准差（约为12380万人次，减少了8.77%）。这种此消彼长的效应导致公共交通客运总量未出现显著变化。随着时间推移，共享单车对轨道交通客运量的正向效果逐年增强，同时对城市公交客运量的负向效果也呈现出增强的趋势。此外，城市规模越大，公共交通越便利的城市，共享单车对轨道交通补充作用和对城市公交的替代作用越明显。建议政府整合共享单车与公共交通，以提升公共交通客运总量；在拥堵路段设立公交专用道，以增强公交的竞争力；在公共交通便利性较高的地区，减少城市公交线路以缓解与共享单车的竞争；在便利性较低的地区，则需增加公交服务，以增强公交出行的优势。
Abstract：The rapid expansion of bike sharing has significantly affected urban public transit. Although previous studies have examined the effects of bike sharing on city buses and rail transit, the overall effect of bike sharing on public transit remains unclear. In particular, long-term trends and underlying mechanisms driving these changes warrant a more comprehensive investigation. This study addresses this gap using a staggered difference-in-differences approach to analyze how bike sharing affects city-bus, rail-transit, and public-transit ridership. Our findings show that following the introduction of bike sharing, city-bus ridership decreased by 0.128 standard deviations(approximately123.8 million trips, an 8.77% decrease), whereas rail-transit ridership increased by 0.088 standard deviations(approximately 82.52 million trips, a 14.34% increase). This offsetting effect led to no net change in public-transit ridership. Over time, the negative effect of bike sharing on city-bus ridership has intensified, whereas its positive effect on rail-transit ridership has grown steadily. In larger cities and areas with better public-transit access, bike sharing tends to reduce city-bus ridership and increase rail-transit ridership. We recommend integrating bike sharing with urban public transit to increase ridership, creating dedicated bus lanes in congested areas to enhance bus competitiveness. Additionally, reduce city-bus routes in high-accessibility areas to mitigate competition between city buses and bike sharing, and increase routes in low-accessibility areas to enhance the advantages of citybus services.
[1]交通运输部.交通运输部等十二部门和单位关于印发绿色出行行动计划（2019—2022年）的通知[EB/OL].(2019-05-31)[2024-09-19]. https://xxgk.mot.gov.cn/2020/jigou/ysfws/202006/t20200623_3315926.html.
[2]中华人民共和国中央人民政府.习近平：高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜为全面建设社会主义现代化国家而团结奋斗——在中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会上的报告[EB/OL].(2022-10-25)[2024-09-19]. https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-10/25/content_5721685.htm.
[3]中国新闻网.多方合力共建绿色出行，未来将有哪些新趋势？[EB/OL].(2023-03-02)[2024-09-19]. http://www.xinhuanet.com/2023-03/02/c_1129408391.htm.
[4]央广网. 2024城市交通出行报告:“90后”爱租车，共享单车价格最受关注[EB/OL].(2024-08-18)[2024-09-19].https://www.sohu.com/a/801663244_362042.
[5]中国信息通信研究院政策与经济研究所.中国共享单车行业发展报告(2018)[R].北京:中国信息通信研究院政策与经济研究所, 2018.
[6]财经网.迈入4.0时代共享单车从缝合城市走向盘活城市交通系统[EB/OL].(2023-09-19)[2024-09-19]. https://finance. sina. com. cn/tech/roll/2023-09-20/doc-imznicqq7510592.shtml.
[7]澎湃新闻.实务者言|缝合城市:共享两轮迈向4.0时代[EB/OL].(2023-09-13)[2024-09-19]. https://baijiahao.baidu. com/s? id=1776912235787908405&wfr=spider&for=pc.
[8] JIN F, CHENG Y, LI X, et al. Connecting the last mile:the impact of dockless bike-sharing on public transportation[J/OL].(2024-02-08)[2024-09-19]Production and Operations Management, https://doi. org/10.1177/10591478231224953.
[9] FAN Y, ZHENG S. Dockless bike sharing alleviates road congestion by complementing subway travel:Evidence from Beijing[J]. Cities, 2020, 107:102895.
[10] LI C, XIAO W, ZHANG D, et al. Low-carbon transformation of cities:Understanding the demand for dockless bike sharing in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2021, 159:112631.
[11] CAMPBELL K B, BRAKEWOOD C. Sharing riders:How bikesharing impacts bus ridership in New York City[J]. Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice,2017, 100:264-282.
[12] KIM K. Investigation of modal integration of bike-sharing and public transit in Seoul for the holders of 365-day passes[J]. Journal of Transport Geography, 2023, 106:103518.
[13]葛丽娟,葛艳波,李枫.共享单车的用户特征及其对城市交通出行的影响[J].综合运输. 2018, 40(4):30-36.GE Lijuan, GE Yanbo, LI Feng. Characteristics of dockless bike share and its impact on urban transportation[J].China Transportation Review, 2018, 40(4):30-36.
[14]王振坡,康海霞,王丽艳.共享单车对居民通勤方式选择的影响研究——基于天津市微观调查与大数据的实证分析[J].城市发展研究, 2019, 26(10):57-66.WANG Zhenpo, KANG Haixia, WANG Liyan. Study on the influence of shared bicycles on the choice of residents’commuting methods:an empirical analysis based on microscopic survey and big data of Tianjin[J]. Urban Development Studies, 2019, 26(10):57-66.
[15] SHI X, LI Z, XIA E. The impact of ride-hailing and shared bikes on public transit:Moderating effect of the legitimacy[J]. Research in Transportation Economics,2021, 85:100870.
[16]石晓阳,夏恩君.网约车对公共交通的影响——合法性的调节作用[J].技术经济, 2020, 39(02):79-86,106.SHI Xiaoyang, XIA Enjun. Research on the Construction of innovation ecosystem in China under new era background[J]. Journal of Technology Economics,2020, 39(02):79-86,106.
[17] HALL J D, PALSSON C, PRICE J. Is Uber a substitute or complement for public transit?[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2018, 108:36-50.
[18]钟军,林岩,杭宇.中国城市网约车服务对公交使用量的影响[J].交通运输系统工程与信息, 2020, 20(5):234-239.ZHONG Jun, LIN Yan, HANG Yu. Impact of ride-hailing service on use of public transport in China’s cities[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2020, 20(5):234-239.
[19] YU S, LIU G, YIN C. Understanding spatial-temporal travel demand of free-floating bike sharing connecting with metro stations[J]. Sustainable Cities and Society,2021, 74:103162.
[20]杨西宁,邓琼华,杨硕.建成环境对居民出行方式选择影响效应的异质性研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报, 2019, 17(2):128-137.YANG Xining, DENG Qionghua, YANG Shuo. Investigation of heterogeneous effects of built environment on a household member’s travel mode choice[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2019, 17(2):128-137.
[21]刘贤腾.交通方式竞争:论我国城市公共交通的发展[M].南京:南京大学出版社, 2012.LIU Xianteng. Competition among travel modes:Exploring the development of urban transit in Chinese major cities[M]. Nanjing:Nanjing University Press, 2012.
[22]王珏玉.共享单车与公共交通的关系:文献综述[J].上海城市规划, 2020(5):41-45.WANG Jueyu. The relationship between bike sharing programs and public transit:a literature review[J].Shanghai Urban Planning Review, 2020,(5):41-45.
[23]中国网科技. 2019年共享单车日均订单达4700万已覆盖全国360个城市[EB/OL].(2019-12-25)[2024-09-19]. http://tech. china. com. cn/se/20191225/362075. shtml.
[24]中国城市轨道交通协会.城市轨道交通2019年度统计和分析报告[R].北京:中国城市轨道交通协会，2020.
[25]许宏伟,冯馨,陈雨虹,等.迈向高效且宜居的城市:滴滴“城市发展指数”报告[R].北京:滴滴发展研究院,2019.
[26]李文权,邓安鑫,郑炎,等.基于机器学习的中型城市居民出行方式选择行为研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息, 2024, 24(2):13-23.LI Wenquan, DENG Anxin, ZHENG Yan, et al. Analysis of residents’travel mode choice in medium-sized city based on machine learning[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2024, 24(2):13-23.
[27]刘阳,季彦婕,何民,等.基于地铁刷卡数据的通学模式影响机理研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019,19(1):132-137.LIU Yang, JI Yanjie, HE Min, et al. Influence mechanism of school commuting pattern using metro smart card data[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2019, 19(1):132-137.
[28]王志军,张豫徽,季彦婕,等.基于多层线性模型的公共自行车接驳公交换乘量影响因素分析[J].交通运输工程与信息学报, 2022, 20(3):81-88.WANG Zhijun, ZHANG Yuhui, JI Yanjie, et al. Analysis of the influencing factors of public-bicycle-connecting regular bus transfer volume based on multilevel linear model[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2022, 20(3):81-88.
[29]搜狐网. 2017年中国大城市分级:超大城市4座,特大城市13座,大城市36座[EB/OL].(2017-12-22)[2024-09-07]. https://www. sohu. com/a/212161007_100028279.
[30]李聪颖,吴佳西,张洪涛,等.建成环境对城市机动车出行时空异质影响研究[J/OL].交通运输工程与信息学报, 1-19[2024-09-19]. https://doi. org/10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2024.08.009.LI Congying, WU Jiaxi, Zhang Hongtao, et al. Spatiotemporal impact of urban built environment on urban motor vehicle travel based on GTWR[J/OL]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 1-19[2024-09-19]. https://doi.org/10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2024.08.009.
[31]石庄彬,鄢春花,何明卫,等.建成环境对老年人出行方式选择的非线性影响[J].交通运输工程与信息学报, 2023, 21(1):49-63.SHI Zhuangbin, YAN Chunhua, HE Mingwei, et al.Non-linear effects of built environment on travel mode choices for elderly[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2023, 21(1):49-63.
[32]余明桂,范蕊,钟慧洁.中国产业政策与企业技术创新[J].社会科学文摘, 2017(2):58-59.
基本信息:
DOI：10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.09.002
中图分类号:F724.6;F572
引用信息:
[1]付一帆,凌帅,牟婷,等.此消彼长：共享单车对城市公共交通客运总量的影响[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2024,22(04):182-194.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.09.002.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金面上项目（72271181）