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【背景】我国老龄化问题日趋严重，构建适老化交通服务规划仍处于探索阶段。【目标】精准分析老年人公交出行意愿影响因素及其相互间的定量关系，从而推动构建老年友好型公交。【方法】首先，选取56位重庆市常乘坐公交出行的老年人进行半结构化访谈，使用扎根理论方法对访谈文本进行质性编码，识别出影响老年人公交出行的4个因素，并结合老年人公交出行实际情景和相关成熟理论构建理论模型，然后基于所构建的理论模型提出相应的理论假设，采用Likert5点量表设计的调查问卷收集477份有效样本，运用偏最小二乘-结构方程模型进行分析和验证。【结果】通过扎根理论中的开放式、主轴式和选择式三级编码方法分析访谈文本数据得到情景性感知、态度、知觉行为控制和主观规范4个主范畴。基于结构方程模型验证结果发现：模型拟合程度均表现良好，主观规范对老年人的公交出行意愿影响作用最大，总效应为0.357；其次是知觉行为控制（0.243）、情景性感知（0.186）和态度（0.152）；同时，情景性感知通过态度变量间接影响老年人的公交出行意愿，间接效应达0.105。【应用】研究结果可为意愿影响因素提取及量化研究提供理论依据，在改善老年人公交出行环境和全面提升适老化交通服务方面具有指导意义。
Abstract：[Background] China's aging problem is becoming increasingly severe, and aging-appropriate transport-service planning remains in the exploratory stage. [Objective] To accurately analyze factors influencing elderly people's willingness to travel via public transportation and their quantitative relationships with each other to promote the construction of age-friendly public transportation.[Methods] First, 56 elderly people who typically travel via public transportation in Chongqing were selected for semi-structured interviews, and the interview texts were qualitatively coded using the rooted-theory method to identify four factors affecting elderly people's travel via public transportation. A theoretical model was constructed by combining the actual scenarios of elderly people's travels via public transportation and the related mature theories. Subsequently, corresponding theoretical assumptions were proposed based on the constructed theoretical models, and a Likert 5-point scale was used to design the theoretical model. The Likert 5-point scale was used to obtain 477 valid samples using partial least-squares structural equation modelling for analysis and verification.[Results] The interview text data are analyzed to obtain the four main categories of situational perception, attitude, perceptual-behavioral control, and subjective norms using the three-level“openended, principal-axis, and selective”coding methods in the rooted theory. The results of structural equation modelling show that the model fit is good and that subjective norms affect the bus travel intention of the elderly the most significantly, with a total effect of 0.357, followed by perceptual behavioral control(0.243), situational perceptions(0.186), and attitudes(0.152). Situational perceptions indirectly affect the bus travel intention of the elderly through the attitudinal variables, with an indirect effect of 0.105. [Application] The results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for the extraction and quantification of factors influencing willingness, thus providing guidance in improving the bus traveling environment for the elderly and comprehensively enhancing aging-friendly transport services.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2024.11.003
中图分类号:U491
引用信息:
[1]陈坚,刘亮,穆礼彬,等.老年人公交出行意愿的影响因素和效应分析[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2025,23(01):135-145.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2024.11.003.
基金信息:
重庆市哲学社会科学创新工程重点项目（2024CXZD25）
2024-12-27
2024-12-27
2024-12-27