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[背景]城市交通路网是城市运行的关键基础设施,其在突发事件扰动下的韧性表现直接影响城市功能的恢复与社会经济的稳定。然而,传统韧性度量方法多聚焦于静态或日尺度分析,难以捕捉短期内系统的动态响应特征。[目标]为有效评价突发事件下的路网性能,提出以日内日变小时级交通配流为基础的城市道路网络韧性度量模型。[方法]明确考虑突发事件下交通流动态变化特性,融合基于理解出行时间的弹性需求、路网供给特征的动态变化和异质出行用户的行为,建立日内日变小时级动态特征的演化配流模型,并设计迭代求解算法;定义基于日内日变小时级交通配流的路网多元韧性度量指标、网络效率指标和可达性指标,设计动态韧性度量框架,并在拓扑路网上进行算例研究。[结果]多元韧性度量指标在短期韧性度量中表现最为稳定;信息用户比例和信息质量是影响路网韧性的关键因素,当信息用户比例达到约75%时路网韧性接近最优性能;管理部门主动信息干预对提升路网韧性具有积极作用,适度的干预强度能够高效改善路网恢复效率。[应用]所提小时级动态韧性度量模型,为评估城市交通系统的应急响应和恢复能力提供了系统化的工具,研究成果可为城市交通管理部门制定突发事件应对策略、优化信息发布机制和提高路网恢复效率提供科学依据。
Abstract：[Background] Urban traffic networks, as critical infrastructure for city operations, exhibit resilience under disruptive events that directly influences the recovery of urban functions and socioeconomic stability. Traditional resilience assessment methods primarily focus on static or daily-scale analyses and fail to capture the short-term dynamic response characteristics of the system. [Objective] In order to effectively evaluate the road network performance under emergency events, an urban road network resilience assessment model based on intraday day-varying hourly-level traffic distribution flow is proposed. [Method] Considering the dynamic changes in traffic flow during sudden incidents, the model integrates the elastic demand based on understanding travel time, dynamic changes in network supply characteristics, and heterogeneous traveler behaviors. An evolutionary allocation model of intra-day hourly dynamic characteristics is established, with an iterative solution algorithm. Resilience measurement indicators based on multi-element are defined, including intraday hourly traffic flow allocation, network efficiency, and reachability indicators. A dynamic resilience measurement framework is designed, and case studies on topological roads are conducted. [Result] The multi-element resilience measurement indicator proves to be the most stable for short-term resilience measurement. The proportion of informed users and the quality of information are key factors affecting network resilience. Network resilience approaches optimal performance when approximately 75% of users are informed. Active information intervention by management departments positively enhances network resilience, with moderate intervention intensity effectively improving the network's recovery efficiency. [Application] The proposed hourly dynamic resilience measurement model provides a systematic tool for assessing the emergency response and recovery capabilities of urban traffic systems. The findings offer scientific support for urban traffic management authorities in formulating emergency response strategies, optimizing information dissemination, and enhancing network recovery efficiency.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.06.012
中图分类号:U491
引用信息:
[1]周文静,张玺,薛钦,等.突发事件下城市交通路网小时级韧性度量模型[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2026,24(03):79-91.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.06.012.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目（16BJL121）; 重庆市教委科学技术研究项目（KJ1705148）
2025-06-06
2025
2025-07-01
2026-04-21
2026
1
2025-07-04
2025-07-04
2025-07-04