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[背景]交通事故发生的过程中多种风险因素之间的关联关系十分复杂,当多个风险因素同时叠加时,会由于要素间相互作用而形成“叠加效应”,增加交通事故风险评估的复杂性。[目标]为了解析交通事故风险影响因素之间的叠加关系,构建叠加模型对不同动态交通风险因素进行评估,旨在发现多维风险因素之间的叠加作用。[方法]首先,对动态的交通风险源进行量化与标准化处理;然后,根据广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)识别的风险序列波动性与风险价值(VaR)的关系,构建GARCH-VaR模型;最后,通过评估每一种风险的VaR序列,分析各个风险因素之间的叠加作用。[数据]采集高速公路部分路段的交通量、内侧车道速度、车道速度差、温度、降雨量、日最大风速、日平均风速、能见度以及交通事故等数据,构建多维动态风险数据库。[结果]研究表明,在进行叠加风险评估时,各个风险因素之间的叠加效应较为复杂,风险的大小并不随着风险因素叠加数量的增多而增加,它们之间的关系不是简单线性关系,而是存在一定的协同或抵消关系。[应用]在道路交通事故风险管理中,针对不同的叠加场景需考虑风险因素的复杂关系来制定综合的风险管理措施,提高道路交通安全水平。
Abstract：[Background]The interrelationships among multiple risk factors during the occurrence of traffic accidents are highly complex. When multiple risk factors superposition simultaneously, a “superposition effect” is formed owing to the interactions among elements, which increases the complexity of traffic accident risk assessment. [Objective] To analyze the overlapping relationships among the influencing factors of traffic accident risk, this study proposed a superposition model to evaluate different dynamic traffic risk factors with the aim of identifying the superposition effects among multidimensional risk factors. [Method] First, dynamic traffic risk sources were quantified and standardized. Then, based on the relationship between the volatility of the risk series identified by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH) model and value at risk(VaR), a GARCH-VaR model was constructed. The interactions among the different risk factors were analyzed by evaluating the VaR sequences of each risk. [Data] By collecting data on traffic volume,inner-lane speed, inter-lane speed difference, temperature, precipitation, daily maximum wind speed,daily average wind speed, visibility, and traffic accidents from certain highway sections, a multidimensional dynamic risk database was established to ensure data diversity. [Result] The results indicated that when conducting a superimposed risk assessment, the superimposed effects among various risk factors were relatively complex. The magnitude of risk did not necessarily increase with the number of superimposed risk factors; the relationship between them was not a simple linear one but rather exhibited certain synergistic or offsetting dynamics. [Application] In conclusion, with regards to road traffic accident risk management, comprehensive risk management measures should be developed for different superposition scenarios by considering the complex relationships among risk factors, so as to improve the level of road traffic safety.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.10.032
中图分类号:U492.8
引用信息:
[1]黄磊,郭淼,姚莹,等.高速公路交通风险多因素叠加作用与特征解析[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2026,24(03):51-68.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.10.032.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目（C类）（52502422）; 云南省科技厅科学技术普及项目（202504AM350017）
2026-03-23
2026-03-23
2026-03-23