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2023 01 v.21;No.79 64-79
综合交通运输系统碳排放预测的不确定性分析
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(71871015)
邮箱(Email):
DOI: 10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.02.010
中文作者单位:

北京交通大学交通运输学院;中国环境科学研究院国家环境保护机动车污染控制与模拟重点实验室;中国环境科学研究院生态环境部机动车排污监控中心;

摘要(Abstract):

综合交通运输系统碳排放是全社会碳排放的主要组成部分,由于受多种因素影响,碳排放的预测具有不确定性。本文将综合交通运输系统划分为道路运输、轨道运输、水路运输和航空运输,将运输量、运输结构、运输工具的能耗和燃料的碳排放系数作为碳排放的影响因素,采用基于活动水平的方法测算综合交通运输系统碳排放。提出单位因素变化的碳排放变化率为敏感性系数,分析运输量、运输结构等不确定因素变化对碳排放的影响;设置不同减排情景,采用蒙特卡罗模拟预测在不同减排政策下碳排放发展的不确定性。通过敏感性分析研究发现:传统能源私家车、货车的运输量或能耗的变化对碳排放影响较大,敏感性系数达到0.46和0.23。不确定性分析结果表明:在既有政策设定情景和面向碳达峰情境下,交通碳排放有望在2033和2031年实现达峰,峰值分别约为11.4亿t与11.3亿t,不确定范围约为10~12亿t,随着时间的推移,碳排放的不确定范围呈扩大趋势。总体上看,交通运输系统在2030年前实现碳达峰难度较大。近中期,传统燃油车的能效提升对碳减排非常重要;中远期,推广新能源车辆措施会发挥更加重要的减排作用。

关键词(KeyWords): 综合运输;;碳排放预测;;自下而上;;敏感性分析;;不确定性分析
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基本信息:

DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.02.010

中图分类号:X322;F512

引用信息:

[1]张晔,宋国华,尹航等.综合交通运输系统碳排放预测的不确定性分析[J],2023,21(01):64-79.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.02.010.

基金信息:

国家自然科学基金项目(71871015)

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