交通运输工程与信息学报

论文首先分析了我国进出关铁路通道的布局、各进出关口的功能及现状运量,然后根据对历史数据和未来发展形势的分析,在获得全国铁路进出关客货运量水平的基础上,对通道各个关口进行分工,得出京唐通道客货运总量预测结果,再将需求预测结果与线网能力进行能力适应分析。经过计算,京哈线北京至唐山段2020年能力利用率为96.8%,已基本饱和;2025年能力利用率为113.9%,能力不足,故2025年前京哈线北京唐山间需要修建新线;通过对替代方案分析,结合京津冀地区土地开发前景,确定结合修建北京枢纽东南环线新建京唐城际的建设方案。

This paper first introduced the layout of the railway passages at the inlet and outlet pass,and its function and capacity.Then,by analyzing the historical data and growing trend,the national railway passenger and freight volume into the passage were forecasted.On the basis of this,the volume into the inlet and outlet pass was calculated and the division was made.After that,the railway passenger and freight volume through Beijing-Tangshan corridor were forecasted.Finally,the demand and railway capacity were contrasted to determine the right construction timing.The results indicated that,in 2020,the capacity utilization rate of Beijing-Tangshan section of Beijing-Haerbin rail would be 96.8%,which is almost saturated,and in 2025 the capacity utilization rate would be 113.9%,which means lack of capacity.So,new lines should be constructed between Beijing and Tangshan before 2025.After analyzing the alternative schemes and the perspective of land development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area,the construction scheme of Beijing-Tangshan intercity railway was determined combining with the construction of the southeast circle line of Beijing railway hub.