交通运输工程与信息学报

市场经济的发展使得铁路旅客运输面临巨大竞争压力,网运分离改革是目前我国铁路改革的主流方向。政企分开以后,客运公司便可以根据市场的多样化需求来制定票价,不仅可以提高自己的收益,而且可以满足运输市场不同的需求。本文核心在于建立各运输方式的效用函数,并建立Logit模型研究各运输方式的客流量导向,着重分析高速铁路旅客票价与客流量之间的关系,运用时间序列预测法预测未来一年客流量,最后建立非线性规划模型,并运用Matlab来分析最优票价的取值。

With the fast development of market-based and diversified economy, rail transportation faces great competition from other transportation modes such as air transportation and highway transportation. To this end, the ongoing railway reform in China focuses on separating the government and enterprise functionalities, so that the railway corporations can set the ticket price based on the market rules. Such a reform should lead to improved revenue generation, and it also reflects the diversified passenger choices in a behavioral sound manner. The study constructs the utility functions of different transportation modes, and analyzes the relationship between railway ticket pricing and passenger flow using the logit model. Time series forecasting method is used to predict future passenger flow and the optimal rail ticket price is determined by solving a non-linear programming problem using Matlab.