交通运输工程与信息学报

基于风险分析的基本思路,本文涵盖了指标设定、模型选取以及引入算例对模型进行实际的运用。考虑多东道国跨境铁路的特性,指标体系的建立基于东道国自身的政治风险因素、母国与东道国合作或东道国与东道国之间涉及的政治风险因素以及外部政治风险因素三个部分。自身政治风险的指标利用文献综合法进行细分,获得包括政策干预风险、政府腐败及效率低下等7大指标;东道国与母国之间以及东道国与东道国之间的政治风险具体为国家关系风险;外部政治风险则结合该线路周边实际形式进行考量。引入贝叶斯网络以及给出的假设国算例,建立整条跨境铁路线路的网络关系,获取各风险因素以及项目整体的政治风险状况。算例结果显示,假设国家所构成的跨境铁路的总体政治风险处于可接受范畴,主要的显著风险因素集中于东道国自身风险部分。

Based on the knowledge of risk analysis, this paper covers the indicator setting, the model selection and the model actual use.Considering the characteristics of a multi-host railway, an index system was set based on the host country's own political risk factors, that is, the cooperation between the home country and the host country, the political risk factors between the host country and the host country and the external political risk factors.The index of self-political risk includes seven factors, such as policy intervention risk, government corruption and inefficiency risks etc.The political risks between the host countries and between the host country and the host country were defined as national relationship risk.The external political risk was considered with combination of the actual form of the rail road line.Bayesian network and the some hypothetical countries were introduced to establish a network relationship of the whole railway line, and the risk status of these risk factors and the whole project were obtained.The example results of the study show that the overall political risk of the cross-border railways is acceptable and the main risk factors are concentrated on the host country's own risk components.