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准确掌握城市公共自行车租/还不均衡程度的时空规律，是引导用户参与自平衡调度、降低调度成本的重要前提。本文以宁波市中心城区公共自行车及其300 m缓冲区建成环境为研究对象，将站点的单车缺口值作为不均衡程度量化指标，基于大规模IC卡刷卡记录数据，利用Kmeans聚类与空间统计等手段，分析了全局站点单车缺口的时空变化规律及骑行OD特征，并构建考虑空间自相关的地理加权回归模型，对建成环境与单车缺口的内在联系进行实证研究。研究表明：(1)研究区域内公共自行车站点的工作日活跃特征分为2类：均衡型、就业导向型，休息日内站点特征分为3类：居住导向型、均衡型、休闲导向型；(2)工作日和休息日的站点单车缺口的全局Moran’s I分别为0.116和0.102，表现出显著的空间正相关性；(3)人口密度、主干路里程、居住社区型POI变量在早/晚高峰时段分别对单车缺口具有正向/负向影响，并且南北部地区影响效用差异明显；地铁站点的影响效用与以上变量相反，空间作用特征是随地铁2号线的走向呈梯度变化。
Abstract：Accurately understanding the spatial-temporal pattern of the supply-demand gap in bike sharing systems(BBSs) is an essential prerequisite for guiding users to participate in self-balancing scheduling and reducing scheduling costs. The primary objective of this study is to identify the spatial-temporal characteristics and quantify the factors affecting the supply-demand gap in BBSs. This study took as an example the BBS and built environment of a 300 m buffer zone in the central urban area of Ningbo city. The gap of pickup and drop-off was considered as the quantitative index of imbalance degree. K-means clustering and spatial statistical methods were first applied to analyze the spatial-temporal variation of the gap and bike cycling OD characteristics based on a large-scale ICcard data. Then, a geographically weighted regression(GWR) model considering the spatial autocorrelation was proposed to determine the internal relationship between the built environment and supply-demand gap. The results showed the following:(1) The pattern of BBS stations in Ningbo city falls into two categories: balanced stations and employment-oriented stations. The BBS stations during weekends fall into three categories: residential-oriented, balanced, and leisure-oriented stations.(2) The global Moran's I values for the gap during workdays and weekends are 0.116 and 0.102, respectively, indicating that the spatial correlation is significantly positive.(3) Based on the GWR model results, the population density, length of main road, and number of residential POI have a positive or negative influence on the global gap value in the morning or evening peak hours, and the difference of impact utility between the north and south areas is significant. Moreover, the impact utility of subway stations is opposite to the above three variables, and the spatial effect characteristic is gradient changing by the direction of Metro Line 2.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.04.006
中图分类号:U491.225
引用信息:
[1]于二泽,周继彪.城市公共自行车租还不均衡的时空特征与影响因素[J],2023,21(02):141-159.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2022.04.006.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目（52002282）;; 浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题项目（21NDJC163YB）
2022-04-10
2022
2023-03-29
2023
2