交通运输工程与信息学报

依据现有研究,将铁路客运量影响因素归纳为:经济体制、国民生产总值、人口数量、居民平均消费水平、运价、工商业发展、运输服务水平、运输方式结构八项指标。通过定性分析结合图论方法构建各因素间的有向连接图及邻接矩阵,并在此基础之上运用系统工程学中的结构解释模型,通过建立可达阵、划分联通区域、级间分解及骨干阵计算四个步骤求解其系统影响因素结构层次模型,并得出结论:人口数量的变化,居民消费水平的提高,运输模式结构的改善,运价的调整及工商业的发展是造成铁路客运量变化的直接因素,其它3项因素通过这5项因素实现对客运量的递控调节。

According to the existed researches, the factors that affect the railway passenger volume can be concluded, that is, economy system, GNP, population, inhabitant’s average consuming level, transport cost, industry and commerce development, transportation service quality, and transport types. By qualitative analysis and with graph theory, a joint graph and a adjacent matrix were got, and based on the system engineering’s structure interpret model, a hierarchy model was put forward through four steps which contain set-up of access matrix, division of linking area, reduction of ration and core matrix calculation. All the process shows that the direct factors are the changing of population, the increase of consuming, the improvement of transport mode, the adjustment of transportation cost andthe industry and commerce development, and the another three factors are subordinate to the five factors amentioned before.