交通运输工程与信息学报

为了定量分析事故路段行车风险因素,保障事故现场的安全性,集成DEMATEL-ISM方法对其影响因素进行辨识和分析。首先基于人-车-路(环境)及管理的系统理论,建立事故路段行车风险影响因素集,即驾驶员因素、车辆因素、道路与环境因素和管理因素,具体分为年龄、驾龄和性别等20个因素,然后以Delphi法确定各个影响因素之间的关系。集成DEMATEL-ISM法,建立事故路段行车风险影响因素辨识模型。通过计算可达矩阵,获得影响因素的5层递阶结构模型,即第一层级为驾驶员驾龄、疲劳程度和反应判断能力等6个因素,第二层级为驾驶里程及车辆类型等8个因素,第三层级为驾驶员年龄等3个因素。研究结果为事故路段的安全管理提供理论依据。

In order to analyze driving risk factors quantitatively and protect the accident scene's safety of road traffic accident section, the influence factors of the road traffic accident section were identified and analyzed by DEMATEL-ISM. First of all, the driving risk factors set, including twenty factors, such as drivers ages, driving years and genders, of the road traffic accident section was established based on the theory of people-car-road(environment). The set consisted of factors of drivers, vehicles, road and environment, and management. Then, the relationships between various factors were determined with Delphi, and the identification model for the driving risk factors was established through integrating DEMATEL-ISM. By calculating the reachable matrix, a five-layer factor hierarchical structure model was obtained. The first level of the model included six factors such as the driving experience, fatigue and reaction ability of the driver; the second level had eight factors, which included vehicle type and so on, and the third level included three factors such as the drivers' ages etc. The results provide a theoretical basis for safety management of the road traffic accident section.