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【背景】交通运输是温室气体排放的重要来源，随着高速公路网络的持续扩展，针对高速公路碳排放的研究越来越重要。【目标】综合考虑宏观社会经济发展、能源结构、交通组成、政策类型以及微观交通流特性对于道路碳排放的影响，以此探讨高速公路实现碳达峰的有效路径。【方法】首先，将高速公路碳排放系统分为社会经济-人口、乘用车、货运物流车、道路运行、能耗及碳排放五个子系统，随后，利用Vensim仿真平台建立了系统动力学系统的存量流量图和系统动力学方程，利用Matlab程序刻画了道路运行多智能体系统，并构建了三维情景组合模型，融合了27种不同策略类型和策略强度组合。【数据】利用浙江省高速公路的收费站数据和调查数据，对杭州绕城高速公路进行分析。【结果】提出了货运需求优化、新能源汽车推广、能耗技术发展三种减碳策略，预测了不同组合策略下高速公路的碳排放趋势，揭示了不同强度的策略组合实现碳达峰的潜在效力。
Abstract：[Background] Transportation is a primary contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. With the continuous expansion of expressway networks, research on expressway carbon emissions has become increasingly important. [Objective] To comprehensively consider the impacts of macro-socioeconomic development, energy structure, traffic composition, policy types, and micro-traffic flow characteristics on road carbon emissions to explore an effective path for achieving a carbon peak on expressways. [Methods] First, the expressway carbon emissions system was divided into five subsystems: socioeconomic-population, passenger vehicles, freight logistics vehicles, road operation, energy consumption, and carbon emissions. Subsequently, the Vensim simulation platform was used to establish the stock flow diagram and system dynamics equation of the system dynamics subsystem,and the Matlab program was used to describe the multiagent subsystem of road operation. A three-dimensional scenario combination model was constructed that combined different strategy types and intensities to form 27 scenarios. [Data] The toll station and survey data of the Zhejiang Expressway were used to analyze the Ring Expressway of Hangzhou. [Results] Three strategies, namely freight demand optimization, new energy vehicle promotion, and energy consumption technology development, were proposed. The carbon emission trends of expressways under different combination strategies were predicted, and the potential effectiveness of different intensity strategy combinations to achieve carbon peaking was revealed.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2024.09.012
中图分类号:X734
引用信息:
[1]岑君,陶秋钢,梅振宇,等.基于系统动力学和多智能体模型的高速公路减碳策略研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2025,23(01):189-211.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2024.09.012.
基金信息:
浙江省尖兵“领雁”研发攻关计划项目（2023C03G6251403）; 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFB1600303）
2024-09-28
2024
2025-02-21
2025
2
2024-11-21
2024-11-21
2024-11-21